Banks are preferring instruments with higher premium over government securities for their held-till-maturity (HTM) portfolio, following the new investment norms, which came into effect from April 1. They are stocking up on corporate bonds and state government securities to boost yield on their portfolio, according to market participants. "Definitely, if there is a good spread available and without lower credit risk, those instruments will be favoured to boost the yield on the portfolio.
Exchange-traded currency derivatives volumes are likely to drop in view of new Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rules, casting a cloud over further participation of retail investors and proprietary traders. There are concerns that existing positions without any underlying exposure will need to be liquidated. Also, weighed down by dollar demand from local oil companies and weakness in its Asian peers, the rupee on Wednesday (April 3) ended at a new closing low of 83.44 versus the US currency.
A potential risk to the rupee's appreciation trajectory lies in the event of a delay in the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, particularly if core inflation in the US remains elevated.
Short-term government bonds fell behind longer-dated securities in demand this month so far due to a liquidity crunch in the banking system and expectations of a delay in a rate cut, said market participants. Investors have favoured longer-tenure government bonds, or g-secs, with insurance companies and pension funds leading the charge by stocking up on those with maturities of 30 years and more. Preference for longer-term securities was strengthened by the conclusion of the borrowing programme, which compelled institutional investors to fulfil their requirements in the secondary market.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted two overnight variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions on Tuesday, marking the first instance of such action in a single day. The move aimed to reduce liquidity from the banking system, which has been largely in deficit mode for the past four months. Market participants noted that the central bank held the second VRRR auction due to its awareness of funds being released to banks during the day.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday did a four-day variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction to reduce liquidity in the banking system as the overnight money market rates fell below the repo rate, said market participants. The repo rate is 6.50 per cent. Banks parked Rs 18,750 crore at the auction against a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore at a weighted average rate of 6.49 per cent.
After an extremely stable 2023, the Indian rupee started 2024 on a promising note and has turned out to be the best-performing Asian currency so far in January, appreciating 0.1 per cent despite 2 per cent rise in the dollar index. All other Asian currencies depreciated by around 1.4-4 per cent during the month. The local currency regained its ground against the greenback on the back of foreign portfolio inflows, said market participants.
Funds raised by India Inc. through offshore loan syndication hit a 15-year high in 2023 with companies and banks raising $21.4 billion, the highest since 2007. The momentum is expected to continue in 2024 as well with over $4 billion fund raising expected in the first three months of this year. Companies raise funds, both onshore and offshore, depending on interest rates and activities. Funds raised offshore can be deployed in overseas activities.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investments in the domestic debt market surged in December, marking a 77-month high, that is, since July 2017. According to market participants, this significant uptick in FPI inflows can be attributed to the post-domestic policy outcome and the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the December policy. FPI inflows into debt stood at Rs 18,393 crore in December against Rs 14,106 crore in November, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Banks submitted bids amounting to Rs 4.75 trillion, around 2.5 times of the notified amount of Rs 1.75 trillion, at the Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRR) auction conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 22, a day after the liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to Rs 2.5 trillion. In the most recent VRR auction held by the RBI on December 15, bids totaling 2.7 times the notified amount were received. Banks secured Rs 1 trillion at a weighted average rate of 6.63 per cent.
The top 50 exposures, amounting to Rs 7.8 trillion, of government-registered non-banking financial companies (G-NBFCs) constitute about 40 per cent of corporate credit within the NBFC sector, indicating concentration risk, according to the Reserve Bank of India's report "Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23". Notably, all the 50 are tied to the power sector, a domain fraught with inherent challenges, the report said. The report highlighted recognising the escalating systemic importance of G-NBFCs, the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) framework had been expanded to include G-NBFCs excluding those falling within the base layer.
Funds raised by banks through certificates of deposit in December clocked the highest in the financial year 2023-24 as liquidity remained tight in the system with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) infusing Rs 2.01 trillion on Monday, the highest in the current financial year. The liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to more than Rs 2 trillion on Monday on the back of advance tax outflows, market participants said. Around Rs 4 trillion worth of outflows are expected because of advanced tax and goods and services tax (GST) payments in December.
Market participants do not expect any immediate impact on the rupee from the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) a "comprehensive" master direction aimed at strengthening the framework for hedging foreign exchange risks. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, in his monetary policy statement, revealed that the central bank is poised to issue a master direction to consolidate guidelines for all types of forex transactions. But this development, according to market players, is more of a directional guidance than a mandatory directive.
Foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs') net investment in the domestic debt market in October was the third highest during the current calendar year as foreign investors rushed to lock in higher returns amid global uncertainty and geo-political tensions, market participants said. FPI inflows in debt stood at Rs 6, 322 crore in October against Rs 768 crore in September, according to data on the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). Market participants said that the majority of the inflows were channelled through corporate bonds.
Retail investors could be hesitant to invest in floating rate savings bonds, as these specific bonds tend to be profitable only in a rising rate environment, according to market participants. The Reserve Bank of India has allowed subscriptions for floating-rate savings bonds, 2020, via retail direct - an online portal that enables individual investors to purchase government securities.
Bond market participants expect an open market operation (OMO) auction in the first week of November as the banking system liquidity is expected to ease on the back of government spending and maturity of bonds. According to market participants, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will issue a notification on OMO sales by October 31. They speculate that the central bank might conduct the auctions in multiple tranches of Rs 10,000 crore.
The banking system liquidity bounced back to surplus mode after three weeks, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed. This was due to government spending, according to dealers. The liquidity situation could further ease with the disbursement of the last tranche of incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) worth Rs 50,000 crore on Saturday.
'The cost of financing the fiscal deficit will decrease, as new passive investors join in.'
Days after JP Morgan announced the inclusion of government bonds in its emerging market (EM) bond index, a host of banks and other financial institutions (FIs) are set to tap the debt market. They plan to raise Rs 18,000 crore by issuing non-convertible debentures (NCDs) and bonds. National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard) plans to raise up to Rs 3,000 crore via five-year social impact bonds on Tuesday, the first of its kind in India.
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